Thailands rödskjortor segrade.

Snart en ny militärkupp?

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Ska den thailändska eliten med militären i spetsen acceptera valsegern för Phue Thai eller kommer vi inom kort framtid att kunna beklaga ännu en militärkupp i kungariket Thailand? Frågan är berättigad för under de senaste 79 åren har armen utfört 18 militärkupper, den senaste 2006 då Thaksin Shinawatra störtades.

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Yingluck Shinawatra är de stora segraren i valet.

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I en opinionsundersökning som publicerades omedelbart efter förra söndagens val trodde strax över hälften att det skulle följas av politiskt våld och 18,4 procent att det berodde på regeringens politik om valet ska följas av politiskt våld. Vad är det egentligen de svarat på? Det är sannerligen inga spekulationer i det blå, för den härskande eliten med sina gulskjortade stormtrupper har visat att den inte ger mycket för demokratiska val och demokratiskt valda regeringar.
Arméns ledning har sagt att den tänker respektera valutgången. Redan att den behöver säga det visar att det inte är givet att den accepterar en valutgång den inte gillar. Alliansen mellan kungahuset, militären, den ekonomiska eliten och höga statstjänstemän är mäktig och har visat att den inte drar sig för att ta till våld för att bevaka sina intressen. Bokslutet efter förra vårens protester i Bangkok är dramatiskt -91 döda och 2000 skadade rödskjortor.

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Trots repressionen har rödskjortorna hållit kampmoralen uppe.

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Segern för de röda i söndagens val är ett mäktigt bevis på att nederlaget på gatorna i fjol vår inte krossade de fattigas kampmoral och hopp om en bättre framtid. Phue Thai-partiets seger speglar det hoppet även om partiet självt måste beskrivas som ett borgerligt parti men med annat socialt stöd än eliten i Bangkok.
Valets stora segrare är Yingluck Shinawatra, syster till Thaksin Shinawatra som störtades i en militärkupp 2006 och som sedan 2008 befinner sig i landsflykt. Hur den nya regeringen ställer sig till en amnesti för Thaksin kan bli nyckeln till den fortsatta utvecklingen. Som ledare för Phue Thai-partiet har hon lovat att de fattigas löners ska höjas med 40 procent vilket kommer att möta kraftigt motstånd från den ekonomiska eliten. Redan dagen efter valsegern inbjöd Yingluck Shinawatra fyra andra partier att ingå i en regeringskoalition trots att Phue Thai vann egen majoritet i parlamentet. Nu får i stället koalitionen en klar majoritet på 299 ledamöter av 500. Om priset för det blir ett tummande på vallöftena till de fattiga återstår att se.

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I Bangkok lever eliten i en värld där de fattiga inte syns och räknas.

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Phue Thai säger att de gör anspråk på utrikes-, inrikes- och försvarsministerierna. Kontroll av dessa tre är väsentliga för att göra det möjligt för Thaksin att återvända. Om det blir lillasysters prioritet den närmaste tiden i stället för att uppfylla vallöftena då är det garanterat att reaktionens gulskjortor snabbt kommer att inta gator och torg och med våld hindra den nya regeringen från att verka. Blir det kaos, ja då kommer Thailand att uppleva sin nittonde militärkupp i modern tid.

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  1. t is becoming clear in Thailand the PT is turning its back on its voters. Until now none of the pre-election promises have been worked out.

    One campaign promise was to re-examine all the lese majeste convictions and charges since the 2006 coup, after which the charges for LM increased by 1,600%. Nothing has been done. On the contrary red shirts are still jailed, many in military prisons and many of them face charges for LM. Some terrorism which can hold the death penalty.

    If some people believe the PT party is waiting for the right time to make a move, I doubt they are right. Since their election there have been 3 times as many charges for LM as there were even during the pro-military Democrat government.

    Beside that funds have now been increase for control of the internet, in particular to hunt down people writing anything deemed other than adulatory of the royal family. Even questioning the LM laws article 112 is considered unacceptable, although perfectly legal.

    A group of university professors, the NITIRAT group has been gathering 10,000 signatures to represent various amendments to laws to the government. By law, the government is obliged to discuss the proposals in parliament. The current government has said it will ignore any proposal to decrease penalties for LM or change the way in which anyone is allowed to press charges. Currently people are jailed for 15-20 years for reasons they would not even get fined for in European monarchies.

    The most recent example is 62 year old ”Grampa SMS” as he has come to be known. For having sent four sms messages to one parliamentarian who denounced him to the police for LM, he was recently sentenced to 20 years incarceration. One of the reasons the judges gave for the severity of the sentence was he refused to confess.

    Compare these 20 years to the recent attack against the leader of the Nitirat group, where two para-military men (one already on probation for illegal weapons possession) was sentenced to two month jail.

    The pro0business reactionary press has written articles and received reader comments which suggest this group of intellectuals should be banned from teaching at the university, exposed (including their addresses) taken outside their homes and be beheaded together with their families and then their bodies burned hanging from trees.

    The current government will soon see the return of 111 politicians banned for 5 years. These are old-timers more interested in again attaining their lucrative positions than political and social change. The risk is the UDD/red shirt grass roots groups will be sidelined even more.

    In the meantime, the PT party has evidently made back room deals with the military. General Prayuth, whom the PT held as responsible for the 91 deaths in 2011 has been allowed to retain his position during the recent military reshuffle; as the PT suggested ”he is doing a good job”.

    Yingluck has also been going to dinner parties with prive council leader Prem, whom many red shirts believe was behind the 2006 coup. Meanwhile Thaksin is openly stating he will soon return. Without agreement by the military and other powerful people this is impossible. The PT has tucked its tails between its legs for the sake of being welcomed back into the fold.

    They have already abandoned their voters.

    PS Thaksin yesterday announced he would use his own money to bail out the red shirt supporters and that he was in negotiations at this very time with the courts. This morning the courts stated there were no negotiations going on and the releases on bail were not denied due to absence of money.

    Even if Thaksin did succeed in bailing out his supporters, there would be no guarantee they would be acquitted in court and absolutely no guarantee Thaksin would risk bailing out those of his supporters charged or waiting to be charged for else majesty. To do so would, in Thailand risk being branded a republican. In Thailand that is worse by many than ”Communist” or ”Terrorist”.

    Those in (real) power who have used national unity, national security and national stability to bamboozle the populace for 3/4 of a century fear the transition from one monarch to the next will not be smooth as they would have hoped for, nor lead to the same use of the institution to ”unite” the people. This is in large part the reason for which there is the current intensification of internet policing and media control, as well as general charging and imprisonment of people for exercising freedom of expression. It is used as a weapon of fear to keep the people docile and silent.

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